2007 MLB Thread

[Jason Harris 31]

Do you have an account with BA? If so, could you please cut and paste the 2007 rankings?

I'm having a tough time wrapping my mind around how the 8th best team had the best draft and fell to the 20's.

[trevor13478 1]

There's a reason why one of these teams is top five and the other's over 20.

There's also a reason why you choose to argue about the yankees farm system rather than the actual major league team who is currently under .500, 12 games back and in 3rd place in the division.

[mik3 1]

There's a reason why one of these teams is top five and the other's over 20.

There's also a reason why you choose to argue about the yankees farm system rather than the actual major league team who is currently under .500, 12 games back and in 3rd place in the division.

The conversation was about farm system, which the yankees have built up an amazing one.

I still see no reason why they won't win the wild card. And, no matter how bad they've played, I don't think anyone wants some combo of Wang/Pettitte/Clemens/Hughes in a three game series.

Also, the way a team can go from top 10 to way out of rankings is people overrating prospects based on not facing competition. See: Craig Hansen, Manny Delcarmen, Daniel Bard.

[Jason Harris 31]

Hey, is that your way of saying you haven't actually seen the 2007 rankings.... ;)

[trevor13478 1]

i don't think anyone wants to face beckett/schilling/matsuzaka either. julian tavarez has pitched surprisingly well also, and with wakefield it's really hit or miss but he'll throw some pretty good games here and there.

this is really just the classic redsox/yankees argument, nobody wins till the end of season, but hey, it's fun to debate it anyway.

[trevor13478 1]

MDC has a 2.16 era and hasn't given up a homer this year for the sox, so i donno how you figure he is a failed prospect?

there are two players on the yankees roster with better ERA's than Delcarmen, Chris Britton and Edwar Ramirez, and they have combined for less innings pitched and more homeruns than Delcarmen.

[mik3 1]

Hey, is that your way of saying you haven't actually seen the 2007 rankings.... ;)

Nah, I just haven't seen the rankings since the free preview that was released in March or so.

Callis had them rated the highest, at like 16th, based pretty much exclusively on Buccholz and Moss.

MDC has a 2.16 era and hasn't given up a homer this year for the sox, so i donno how you figure he is a failed prospect?

there are two players on the yankees roster with better ERA's than Delcarmen, Chris Britton and Edwar Ramirez, and they have combined for less innings pitched and more homeruns than Delcarmen.

Except, the rankings were based on his 5era in 06 when it was supposed to be a year he graduated to the majors.

[trevor13478 1]

Also, the way a team can go from top 10 to way out of rankings is people overrating prospects based on not facing competition. See: Craig Hansen, Manny Delcarmen, Daniel Bard.

Delcarmen has also never been ranked as a top 100 prospect (at least not in 2005, 06 or 07). hansen was ranked 54 last year and delcarmen has deffinetly pitched better than hansen. i don't think Delcarmen is overrated at all. Hansen has deffinetly dissapointed and i don't know much about Bard.

[mack 44]

haha Melky Cabrera

[mik3 1]

It sucks too 'cause he's been hitting like .310 the last two months, then BAM.

He could have so easily tied or won the game today. And Jeter has ended sooooo many games at the plate the last few years.

[mack 44]

I kept thinking he was due for putting the ball in play that AB but no, he just laid down a turd.

Good game though and another great outing by Clemens. I still don't think the playoffs are happening for the Yankees though.

[Jason Harris 31]

Also, the way a team can go from top 10 to way out of rankings is people overrating prospects based on not facing competition. See: Craig Hansen, Manny Delcarmen, Daniel Bard.

Except, the rankings were based on his 5era in 06 when it was supposed to be a year he graduated to the majors.

Certainly the Sox have/had high expectations for Hansen and Delcarmen, but last year was not the year they were supposed to graduate to the majors. If you recall, neither made the team out of spring training and were looking more to be September call ups until Keith Foulke was injured and Rudy Seanez released. At that point, because of their youth (Delcarmen was 24 and Hansen 22), the Sox didn't want either of those guys to be exposed, so they considered them to be the back end of the bullpen, while Timlin, Tavarez and Papelbon were the headliners. The Sox had been hoping to pitch the rookies mostly in innings 6 or 7, but after Wakefield and Clement got hurt, the rooks were being forced into situations the team didn't want them to have.

Delcarmen appears to have bounced back better than Hansen has, but Hansen is still only two years removed from college. The thing is a young guy might be able to succeed in the KC's of the world, but few players succeed in Boston or NY as pups. I think that is one reason you see the Sox draft college players more than a lot of other teams — there’s a better history to judge a player’s constitution. Truthfully, Boston fans are Jeckyl and Hyde. When someone is playing well, they’re the best fans in the world, but when someone is playing poorly, they’re the worst. It takes a mentally strong player to ignore the fans and play his way out of a slump. Not everyone can do it, and there are a number of ex-Sox and Yankees throughout the league who are doing better elsewhere.

By the way, I finally found Baseball America’s 2007 rankings and we were both wrong. Here are the Top 10:

1 - Tampa Bay

2 - Colorado

3 - Arizona

4 - LA of Anaheim

5 - Milwaukee

6 - Los Angeles

7 - New York-AL

8 - Minnesota

9 – Boston

10 - Cleveland

[sabre09923 0]

Truthfully, Boston fans are Jeckyl and Hyde. When someone is playing well, they’re the best fans in the world, but when someone is playing poorly, they’re the worst. It takes a mentally strong player to ignore the fans and play his way out of a slump. Not everyone can do it, and there are a number of ex-Sox and Yankees throughout the league who are doing better elsewhere.

Julio Lugo is not one of those mentally tough players. He's hitting below the Mendoza line... Even Gonzalez didn't do that.

[Jason Harris 31]

And Renteria is a recent example of someone who is an All-Star elsewhere and a husk in Boston.

On the other hand, there have been players who's home/away splits are better at Fenway, so it would appear they thrive with the intensity of the crowds.

[mik3 1]

And that fenway is extremely friendly to righties.

[Jason Harris 31]

That's true, that would account for some of it, although it wouldn't explain the pitchers. Schilling's been better at Fenway.

It's not just Boston. You can throw New York or Philly into the equation. The glare is intense when a player isn't doing well in any of those cities.

[Jason Harris 31]

I have to admit that Papelbon is starting to concern me.

I can't tell if he's not as good as last year or they've figured him out, or whether he just isn't pitching often enough to be sharp. I think it's a combination of both, because his stuff is way above average, but, in any event, he' not having enough clean innings.

[D-MaN88 0]

Salming, I have to agree, Papelbon has been worrying me for awhile now. Him and Wakefield both, it seems like most of the time they are just both lobbing it in there, Wakefield especially (sometimes I don't get how he made it pro). To be honest I wished they would just trade Wakefield and if Papelbon doesn't start finishing, I could see him out in the off-season. The closers are going to have to be strong down the stretch, as they are 24 games over .500 as of tonight, but the Yankees have been on a tear I have to admit (partly and most likely because of the nice schedule they've had of late). I don't know I just hope the starting rotation and the closers can keep it together. When they are all on with the rest of the team getting the bat on the ball I can almost feel a World Series title this year! :) At least the pennant!

[sabre09923 0]

At least Okajima continues to stymie hitters...

[Jason Harris 31]

D-Man, I think the majority of Papelbon's problems comes from lack of work. I was reading today that he had converted 15 straight save opportunity's, but he's placed some pitches over the plate that were obviously supposed to touch the corners. I think the Sox should sometimes use Paps in non-save situations, just to keep him sharp.

Wake doesn't scare me out there, but you never know what you are going to get. It could be a three-hitter with nine strikeouts, or a five-hitter with four walks and three of the hits homers. The bottom line, however, is he saves the bullpen quite a bit over the course of a season. A lot of teams would be quite happy to get .500 pitching out of him, as long as he could reach the seventh inning in most games.

You're right about the hitting. If the Sox are producing collectively, they're one of the top three teams this year, but they've had far too many games where they scored only two runs. I'd like to see another bat, but who would (or could) you replace? The other concerning thing is Papi has taken off the cape this season -- he literally has no clutch hits.

Still, I think the pitching is too good to suffer a major collapse, so we should make the playoffs.

[D-MaN88 0]

Salming, what do you think of the rumors of possibly getting rid of Manny to get A-Rod? From my point of view, no matter what has happened I would be MORE than happy to have him on the team. If he can keep up how he's been playing and hitting this season, I would love to see him in a Red Sox uniform.

But yeah, I agree, the Red Sox now that I think of it don't really use Papelbon in a regular rotation. He just kind of gets thrown in the mix. I think every so often they should use him earlier but Francona is the man and we are 24 games over .500 so I guess whatever he's deciding in the dugout is working.

Also, Wakefield just scares me, I don't know if it's his actual form of pitching but watching from behind the pitcher's mound it just seems as if he's lobbing it in there. I wasn't currently aware that he's pitching about .500 as I have never really cared for him. As long as he can keep saving the bullpen when it's needed I have no problem with him.

I have no doubt in my mind we will be in the playoffs, Big Papi just needs to get healthy come playoff time so he can save those clutch hits when we need them. The rest of the team and the middle/bottom of the order is really producing right now, hopefully they too can keep it up down the stretch and deep into the post-season.

[mik3 1]

Papelbon's main problem, in my opinion, is he's messing around with too many pitches this year.

Why get beat on your third or fourth pitch? He got beat on a cutter earlier this year after never throwing one in a major league game before.

[trevor13478 1]

Salming, what do you think of the rumors of possibly getting rid of Manny to get A-Rod?

That will NEVER happen, first of all, if you're speaking of a trade, why would the yankees want to deal him with those numbers when manny hasn't been putting up anything like we expect from him. second of all, manny has a no trade so he has to approve any trade, meaning you have to make him happy as well. I don't think Theo would be all that excited about A-Rod's contract either. I just don't forsee this happening at all.

I don't think we necesarily need to trade to get another bat, we just need some of these to perform like they can. lugo just started coming around, as did manny, if ortiz can get back on track and we get some solid production out of JD Drew, factor in the pitching we have and i see no doubt playoff team. Don't forget about Mike Lowell either, he's in a contract year and has put up good numbers all year.

An A-Rod deal if it happens would go down in the offseason, not at the deadline. We'll be looking for a 3rd baseman because chances are, with lowells age he won't be resignedActually, A-Rod would play shortstop if he came to boston, so that still wouldn't fill a third base hole. It's just really hard for me to see a-rod wanting to come to boston and secondly to see boston wanting a-rod.

He got beat on a cutter earlier this year after never throwing one in a major league game before.

actually, the first cutter he threw was a third strike to get the third out and a save.

Papelbon has been worrying me for awhile now. Him and Wakefield both, it seems like most of the time they are just both lobbing it in there, Wakefield especially (sometimes I don't get how he made it pro).

The knock on Wake is his inconsistancy, you don't know if he'll get shmucked or pitch a shutout, however when he is on, he's nearly untouchable, thats why he's a profesional.

if Papelbon doesn't start finishing, I could see him out in the off-season.

no way will they trade papelbon, the kid's got too much upside, if he slumps the rest of this year he may just be moved into the rotation, where he's more comfortable, especially if we go out and get a closer at the deadline. This may just be a sophomore slump for paps. (if you can really call 23 for 25 in save opportunities a slump)

[mik3 1]

He has WAY more upside as a closer than a starter.

He has two plus pitches, he might throw four but two are plus. He'd be getting killed the second and third time through a lineup.

All his projections for this year were so much higher as a closer.

Also, ARod would play 3b for Boston since they're stuck with Lugo till 2010 at 8+mil a year. Though I still think ARod's not going anywhere, but that's neither here nor there.

Boston probably won't pick up a closer-type guy at the deadline though. Maybe just a solid guy like Qualls or Al Reyes. Dotel's talking to KC about an extension and Dallas radio is saying Gagne's going to NYY.

[sabre09923 0]

The bullpen has been great and consistent so far, everyone agrees with that. Even though Papelbon has been shaky at times, the rest of the bullpen (minus Pineiro) has done outstanding. Delcarmen and Okajima have been superb all year, and after Timlin came back it got even better. The problem is inconsistency from the rotation, especially from guys like Wakefield and even Daisuke. It seems they go from dominating one game, to giving up 5-6 runs in their next start.

The offense isn't producing as they should either. Ortiz playing with a bad knee, coupled with zero production from Drew and Lugo (though Lugo has been hitting better lately) slows the offense down a lot. Youkilis hasn't been hitting well lately either... And if you asked someone who would lead the Red Sox in RBI at this point in the year, I bet none of them would say Mike Lowell.