2008 NHL Enty Draft

[Steveo 0]

How is the 1st pick determined this year? Is it determined by lotery or actual order of the bottom teams

Just wondering if the Leafs continue their dismal season, if they will for sure get Stamkos.

[Ultimus 0]

lottery, by non playoff teams first. I believe its weighted to, so if you suck more you have a better chance. BUt it keeps teams from completely tanking just to get the pick.

[Eazy_b97 1]

It's a weighted lottery, you can only drop 1 place. Bottom team has roughly a 25% chance of getting it.

[sjsharks11 0]

last year Chicago got it even though Philadelphia was the worst team in the league

[supahdon 0]

It's a weighted lottery, you can only drop 1 place. Bottom team has roughly a 25% chance of getting it.

The last place team has a 25% chance of winning outright, but if teams #6-14 happen to win, the last place team would retain the top pick. So with that included, the last place team has a 48.2% chance of picking #1.

The odds from last year:

Philadelphia Flyers 25.0%

Phoenix Coyotes 18.8%

Los Angeles Kings 14.2%

Washington Capitals 10.7%

Chicago Blackhawks 8.1%

Edmonton Oilers 6.2%

Columbus Blue Jackets 4.7%

Boston Bruins 3.6%

St. Louis Blues 2.7%

Florida Panthers 2.1%

Carolina Hurricanes 1.5%

Montreal Canadiens 1.1%

Toronto Maple Leafs 0.8%

Colorado Avalanche 0.5%

If you're wondering how a team could have a portion of a percentage, think of it like lottery tickets. Ie, last year the Flyers had 250 potential winning combinations, the Coyotes had 188, the Kings 142, etc etc.

The drawing is conducted by drawing four out of fourteen numbered balls. So a winning ticket might be 14-4-2-7 (order doesn't matter). There are 1,001 possible combinations of winners from this process. The combination 11-12-13-14 isn't assigned.

The maximum you can jump is four spots. So if Edmonton had won the lottery last year, they would have jumped from #6 to #2.

[Eazy_b97 1]

Correct, the last place team ends up having slightly below a 50% chance or keeping the first overall pick.