Draft Lottery Nuts and Bolts

[mrusse01 0]

It is commonly known the the chances of winning the NHL Entry Draft break down as such (last year's standings as example):

25.0% - Tampa Bay Lightning

18.8% - Los Angeles Kings

14.2% - Atlanta Thrashers

10.7% - St. Louis Blues

8.1% - New York Islanders

6.2% - Columbus Blue Jackets

4.7% - Toronto Maple Leafs

3.6% - Phoenix Coyotes

2.7% - Nashville Predators (via Fla.)

2.1% - Vancouver Canucks

1.5% - Chicago Blackhawks

1.1% - Anaheim Ducks (via Ed.)

0.8% - Buffalo Sabres

0.5% - Carolina Hurricanes

Somewhat less commonly known is you can only move up 4 spots in the lottery and the most you can drop is 1 spot, so the bottom 5 teams are really the only teams with the chance to pick first overall. As such, if any of the other 9 teams in the lottery win the lottery, it is actually the team that finished in last place that gets to pick first overall. So, you take the percentages above for the other 9 teams, add those up and then add that to 25%, and that number is the true odds that the last place team will retain the first overall pick (48.2%).

My question is, coming at this from the Toronto fan's perspective, assuming the Islanders have last place locked up...if Toronto finishes 2nd last, there are only three spots we can pick 1st, 2nd, 3rd. What are the chances that Toronto picks 1st, 2nd, or 3rd respectively?

[interpathway 9]

Just read this article on past drafts of teams like the Sens, Red Wings, and Bruins. Thought it might fit here with talk of the #1 overall picks.

http://thehockeynews.com/articles/22630-To...her-ground.html

[mrusse01 0]

Nobody can figure this out? Ok, I'll take a shot.

I've tried to find exactly how the draft works, and my understanding is there is only one 'draw' and from there the draft order is set. So they have the lottery, whomever wins moves up a maximum of 4 spots, and every other team falls in order from there (I know the teams towards the end of the round are sorted through the playoff results). Is this correct?

If so, that would mean the 2nd last team has an 18.8% to win the lottery and pick first. If any team from 3rd last to 6th last wins the lottery, they will move up 4 spots and leapfrog the 2nd last place team, moving them down to pick 3rd overall. The odds of that happening are (14.2+10.7+8.1+6.2) = 39.2%. The other alternative is either the last place team wins the lottery (25% chance) or a team from 7th to 14th last wins the lottery (17% chance), but they cannot leap up far enough to move past the 2nd last place team.

As such, the odds of the 2nd last team picking first are 18.8%, the odds of them staying at the second pick are 42% and the odds of them being bumped down one spot to the third pick are 39.2%.