What are the odds of making the show

[NuggyBuggy 0]

"Somebody has to be better than the rest, might aswell be me".

NuggyBuggy: Intresting numbers, especially liked the Football stats regarding D1. So (it seems) there's a 5% chance to go from D1 to the show. How about from High School to D1 College, what might the odds be there?

In my calculations, that was 5% who got DRAFTED, but a lot of those guys don't even end up making it into a single game. I knew a guy who was the 4th nationally-ranked TE from a big Pac-10 powerhouse when he graduated, got drafted, and never made it out of training camp.

As for the numbers, football was the easiest case to make since all NFL players ultimately get drafted from D1 - no minor leagues to worry about and no kids going to the NFL from high school. This makes it easy since it is safe to assume most guys who get drafted have scholarships, and the NCAA prescribes the maximum number of scholarships so there is no guessing there, either.

After I did my calculations I found this website which gives the odds of going highschool-D1, D1-pro and high school->pro for a variety of sports. Keep in mind that by "pro" they mean simply being drafted, and not actually playing at that level. The methodology is interesting because they assume high school students are there for 3.5 years (since apparently some high schools are 3-year programs and some 4). But if most students are really in high school for 4 years, the odds will drop a little bit.

My calculations overstated the NCAA probabilities, probably because I had to assume that all athletes made it to their senior year.

[Meathead 0]

Put it this way, if you are trying to figure out the odds of you making it, you probably aren't making it.

[hockeymom 2]

Put it this way, if you are trying to figure out the odds of you making it, you probably aren't making it.

I disagree with this.

You are right, if someone is looking at it from the point of view of "how easy is it to make it, could even I slide in?"

Human beings have difficulty operating in a void - they want to define the playing field. So looking at the odds of it, or how steep the hill is - defines the void and helps them sharpen their goals.

What I've noticed about athletes is they have a compulsion to measure everything. It is part and parcel of the competitive nature. Even when who they are competing against is their personal best: how much weight they are bench pressing, or how many sets and reps. Doesn't matter, I have yet to meet an athlete who does not measure their performance. It is natural for them to attempt to measure the void in order to define the goal.

By defining the odds - seeing how impossible their dream is - some people will look at their skill level and that of the player to their right and their left and figure they aren't good enough. And that's great, because they will enjoy the game they are playing now for what it is.

Other people will see how impossible it is and dig deeper in pursuit of their dream. They will gather determination from seeing how large that mountain they have to climb is. They will go after the impossible as a goal.

The way I see it, virtually all of them will fail. This is, afterall, an impossible game. If they have loved the effort all the way through they will have no regrets. Disappointment of course, but no regrets. And a fraction of them will, against all odds, be "the one".

[mack 44]

You aren't that new around mama, but anytime you see a post by that guy you can just assume the opposite is true, let alone bust out a dissertation that won't be read by the person you're quoting.

[Meathead 0]

You aren't that new around mama, but anytime you see a post by that guy you can just assume the opposite is true, let alone bust out a dissertation that won't be read by the person you're quoting.

No I read it. I appreciated someone making a point when they disagree insted of just bashing.

[hocckey77 0]

A winner beats the odds, a loser uses them as excuses.

That's fine, a good attitude is obviously going to be important to get to the highest level, but don't claim that 1 in 100 people have what it takes to be a world-class athlete. That's just silly, and what I was trying to show.

If you really believe what you wrote, let's talk in 5 or 10 years when you and your brother have or have not made it to the NHL. Will you both beat the odds and be winners by your own definition, or will you be losers ? PM me your brother's name and if he is a winner and he makes it up for a cup of coffee, I will buy the both of you a pitcher of beer if you are ever in Toronto.

yeah, well just because you have the stuff to go pro doesn't mean you will use it.

there was this guy frommy area.. I don't know him and it happened like 10yrs ago maybe but all the health/ drup people at my school use him as an example. Basically he was this amazing pitcher in high school and got drafted when he was a junior or a senior. instead of going to college he could have go to the minors but i guess he just chose to party and get blazed everyday and then ruined all his chances.

and i'm sure there are a ton of amazing athletes that don't ever go pro because of personal decisions

[xMenace 0]

and i'm sure there are a ton of amazing athletes that don't ever go pro because of personal decisions

They're a dime a dozen as are those who have the desire and dedication but not the physical attributes or skills.

Here's another question: how do you know if a kid has the physical attributes to be a world class athlete? Some kids at 9 dominate then disapear as they grow, some only develop their strength and coordination later, others rock all the way through. One thing I'd love to see is physical testing of kids to some standard to identify the hidden gold early. Too much talent is lost because people either don't see it or refuse to for whatever reason.

Tell me this. Does a 6', 165lb 14yr old who can run a 10yd dash in 1.89secs sound world class to you?

[biff44 0]

Run??? What is that? You mean with your skates on you run instead of skate?

[Patrick67 1]

No idea what the norm for running a 10yrd dash is, so can't say if it's world class or not...

But if he can skate a lap around the rink (wearing gear) in under 14.5secs... yes.

[Kovy_Ribs_Fedo 3]

Put it this way, if you are trying to figure out the odds of you making it, you probably aren't making it.

I agree with you. It's good to be able to evalulate ourself like we are but not the way HockeyMom and NuggyBuggy said. If you are trying to calculate the odds you can make it, you are wrong. You can evaluate yourself and say -I'm not good enough- this is fine. But if you think you have the talent and the desire to go higher I'd say go for it and don't let the odds stop you.

[Thockey17 1]

But if he can skate a lap around the rink (wearing gear) in under 14.5secs... yes.

You do realize that only a handful of guys in the NHL can do that, right?

No 14yr old is doing that.

[NuggyBuggy 0]

But if you think you have the talent and the desire to go higher I'd say go for it and don't let the odds stop you.

I agree completely, but most people need to understand what the odds are so that they can be realistic. The world is full of kids who were so sure they were going to make it to the NFL/NHL/NBA that they didn't, say, pick up the education that was there for them in college and are now pushing shopping carts in the parking lot of the local Vons.

[Kovy_Ribs_Fedo 3]

But if you think you have the talent and the desire to go higher I'd say go for it and don't let the odds stop you.

I agree completely, but most people need to understand what the odds are so that they can be realistic. The world is full of kids who were so sure they were going to make it to the NFL/NHL/NBA that they didn't, say, pick up the education that was there for them in college and are now pushing shopping carts in the parking lot of the local Vons.

Yeah, I agree with you. But if sports doesn't work, the still can go back to college. There are even NHLers that do that after their carreer. What I notice though is that many guys that are chasing the dream are not brillant students (I don't why but this is what I've notice).

[Storm 0]

"It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp"

"Everybody gotta have a dream"

[xMenace 0]

But if he can skate a lap around the rink (wearing gear) in under 14.5secs... yes.

You do realize that only a handful of guys in the NHL can do that, right?

No 14yr old is doing that.

My stat was hypothetical. My only point is, I think, that there is now standard way to tell if someone has world class physical attributes. How do you accurately measure them and when? Those numbers given such as 1 in 10 or 1 in 100 are purely guesses. The problem with thinking you have it is kind of like those american idol goofs who think they have talent but can't hit a note. Too many players and parents think they do but they don't. And you can't say otherwise without testing. BTW college football players in the NFL combine do 10yds between 1.5 and 2.0 secs with an average of 1.80.

[NuggyBuggy 0]

The problem with thinking you have it is kind of like those american idol goofs who think they have talent but can't hit a note. Too many players and parents think they do but they don't.

I do some volunteer work with underprivileged kids and you would be surprised at how many of them between grade 6 and 8 believe that they are going to be pro basketball players. Even the girls. I just feel sad for them.

[lando_8 0]

Chances of making it to the NHL

[Storm 0]

Great article Lando.

Thanks

[DarkStar50 679]

That article should be handed out after tryouts! It is amazing how little money there is after one season of play. I would tell anyone to continue the quest but now they know how much higher the mountain is.