Rangers on Vesey Street

[chippa13 1844]

I stopped reading at Yandle is a "near generational talent". Sure, he's decent offensively from the back end but he is a serviceable defender, at best. Let's not induct him into the Hall just yet.

[psulion22 402]

4 minutes ago, Cavs019 said:

Give me Hagelin over Kreider every day of the week and twice on Sunday. If you're looking for a guy to play the speed with no hands game, I'd prefer the guy who also has a brain.

Hagelin is an absolute menace on the PK (an area they were horrible in last year) and is much smarter about using his speed than Kreider is, who seems to have no lateral game and just skates north-south until he runs into something.  

Bingo.  Hagelin makes too much money for what he produces and where is most effective.  But Kreider makes even more money, despite being a less valuable player really only suited to Hagelin's role.  They could have moved Kreider for something, moved Buchnevich (or now Vesey) into the top 6, put Grabner onto the third line to use his speed (to help Hayes also), and gotten a real 4th liner.  And come out with more cap space.

[psulion22 402]

39 minutes ago, chippa13 said:

I stopped reading at Yandle is a "near generational talent". Sure, he's decent offensively from the back end but he is a serviceable defender, at best. Let's not induct him into the Hall just yet.

Ok, maybe that's a little overboard. But How many defenders in the league produce as much offensively as Yandle but are dominant in their own end?  It's only a handful of guys.  Weber, Suter, Doughty, Keith.  Maybe a few others.  Yandle is fine in his zone also.  He runs into problems when he tries to make long outlet passes and stops moving his feet.  Rangers fans (yes, I am one) bash him for his "turnovers", mostly because he isn't home grown and they feel they lost Duclair for nothing.  Home grown guys - Girardi, Staal, and even Zuccarello - turned the puck over much more frequently than Yandle, and no one sayd boo about it.  His ability to move the puck is one of the best in the league.  He's far beyond "decent offensively from the back end".   I don't know about the HoF.  That's why I said "near"- generational.  He's not what the true greats in the league are in both end.  Those guys are the generational talents.  But he's pretty close.  He's underrated because he doesn't go end to end, have the bomb for a shot, or have the hands like the truly elite guys.  But his passing ability, especially on the outlet, is near the top among defensemen.  It just goes unappreciated.

[chippa13 1844]

Yandle is underrated? Now you've taken it too far. As for the rest, I guess I need the psullion22 to English dictionary because I don't understand how a "near generational talent" is not a Hall of Famer. If Yandle is so good in his own zone then why did he have the worst +/- on the entire roster? McDonagh + 26, Girardi +18, Klein +16......Heck, even Dan Boyle was even while Yandle was a -4.

[psulion22 402]

3 hours ago, chippa13 said:

Yandle is underrated? Now you've taken it too far. As for the rest, I guess I need the psullion22 to English dictionary because I don't understand how a "near generational talent" is not a Hall of Famer. If Yandle is so good in his own zone then why did he have the worst +/- on the entire roster? McDonagh + 26, Girardi +18, Klein +16......Heck, even Dan Boyle was even while Yandle was a -4.

I didn't think he was any worse than the rest of the defense, certainly not that he stood out for it. The turnovers were there, but they also weren't as bad as most Ranger fans made them out to be. Clearly his +/- number shows I was wrong on that. There could be reasons that it was that disparate, other than he just was that bad. Many of his points coming on the PP, while he played mostly with terrible third and fourth lines at ES. Or he just could have been that bad. 

 

He's still one of the best offensive defensemen in the league. His point totals show that. I thought he was their best defenseman at times. And was the only one that outlet the puck cleanly most of the time. I think they are going to be even worse off this year without him. 

[DarkStar50 679]

I'll take Brett Burns over any D-man you have mentioned yet. I'd rather even have P.K. over Yandle. Player for player, leave your capology helmet off please.

[beerleaguecaptain 999]

22 hours ago, chippa13 said:

Ask Tyler Seguin.

Or Evander Kane

[beerleaguecaptain 999]

Yandle is NOT a generational talent.  He is a good player and a point accumulator but he does not have the impact on the game of a Karlsson or even a Subban for that matter.

I agree that the Rangers seem to have ignored important statistical measures in talent eval.  My biggest problem is their low Corsi and Fenwick numbers.  They are a terrible puck possession team.  

[psulion22 402]

18 hours ago, DarkStar50 said:

I'll take Brett Burns over any D-man you have mentioned yet. I'd rather even have P.K. over Yandle. Player for player, leave your capology helmet off please.

Player for player, a la NHL '94 style, Burns is a great choice too.  I'd add Viktor Hedman to that list also.  Subban isn't consistent enough for me.  I don't care about his attitude.  I care that he has times where he seemingly disappears.  And I don't know that he's any better in his end than Yandle.  When he's on, he has the ability to dominate a game though.

6 hours ago, dkmiller3356 said:

Yandle is NOT a generational talent.  He is a good player and a point accumulator but he does not have the impact on the game of a Karlsson or even a Subban for that matter.

I agree that the Rangers seem to have ignored important statistical measures in talent eval.  My biggest problem is their low Corsi and Fenwick numbers.  They are a terrible puck possession team.  

Fair enough.  I still think his outlet ability is underrated.  He isn't flashy and doesn't have the kind of impact that those guys and several others have.  BUt he really does get the puck out of the zone incredibly well, and his puck distribution from the point is really good too.

 

If you think their possession numbers were bad last year, wait until this year when they don't have Yandle to get the puck out of the zone or make plays from the point.  There's no addressing of the issues, and that is what is causing the VAR problems.  Possession is near the bottom of the league.  A lot of that has to do with faceoffs.  They don't address either of that, and over pay guys to keep creating the same issues.  I also think there is a massive rift between the plan that the coaches have vs what management does.  The misuse of personnel, especially players that management went out to get, is problematic.

[beerleaguecaptain 999]

4 hours ago, psulion22 said:

Player for player, a la NHL '94 style, Burns is a great choice too.  I'd add Viktor Hedman to that list also.  Subban isn't consistent enough for me.  I don't care about his attitude.  I care that he has times where he seemingly disappears.  And I don't know that he's any better in his end than Yandle.  When he's on, he has the ability to dominate a game though.

Fair enough.  I still think his outlet ability is underrated.  He isn't flashy and doesn't have the kind of impact that those guys and several others have.  BUt he really does get the puck out of the zone incredibly well, and his puck distribution from the point is really good too.

 

If you think their possession numbers were bad last year, wait until this year when they don't have Yandle to get the puck out of the zone or make plays from the point.  There's no addressing of the issues, and that is what is causing the VAR problems.  Possession is near the bottom of the league.  A lot of that has to do with faceoffs.  They don't address either of that, and over pay guys to keep creating the same issues.  I also think there is a massive rift between the plan that the coaches have vs what management does.  The misuse of personnel, especially players that management went out to get, is problematic.

Good team possession numbers are generated by defensemen but truly great possession numbers are driven by forwards possessing the puck down low.

[psulion22 402]

1 hour ago, dkmiller3356 said:

Good team possession numbers are generated by defensemen but truly great possession numbers are driven by forwards possessing the puck down low.

They're twofold since possession numbers are stated as a percentage of total shot attempts by both teams. So forwards are really the drivers of positive possession percentages or control of the puck, while defensemen evading the forecheck and outletting quickly are what keep the other team from controlling the puck and generating their own positive possession. Both are important for advanced metrics. But you are right. The ability to retrieve the puck on the forecheck and then make a play to get it off the boards *cough* Hagelin *cough* and drive offensive chances are what make a team great in terms of possession. Keeping the puck down low is important, but it needs to translate into shot attempts to really be positive. Faceoff wins in the offensive zone, and defensemen that can get shots on net through traffic are a big part as well.   The Rangers were bad at about all of that, and that's why they had horrible Corsi/Fenwick numbers.  

[DarkStar50 679]

If Hagelin is the second coming of Guy Carbonneau, why did Anaheim trade him?

[Cosmic 178]

Disclaimer: I am a NYR fan. 

I do not recall where in this thread I read it, but someone said, "NYR can afford Staal, but not Yandle?" NYR signed Staal in January 2015, and then picked up Yandle at the trade deadline of 2015. I doubt that when Staal was signed, that Slats knew he'd be getting Yandle. Sure, you could say, "It doesn't matter- keep that cap money freed up and just figure someone will come along to use it on," and I'd agree. But, Staal was definitely NOT decided on, over Yandle. Regardless, I agree that it was an unfortunate signing.

Also, it is not just Staal's eye that has potentially been an issue. His brother Eric (a NYR for a few weeks) gave him a massive concussion, not sure if it was before or after the eye deal. If the brother Eric concussion was after the eye deal, who knows what the heck Marc is seeing and reading and how and if he is processing the game at speed. Judging from his play last year, I do not think he is processing the game at all. No real hope for improvement this year. He always seems to look lost too, not just when he is giving up goals from his side of the ice, but just in general.

I recall the play that Girardi cracked his kneecap on. It was against EDM in the first game that EDM blew out NYR, about 2/5 of the way into the season, after NYR had their hot start, and was starting to plateau a bit, right before the collapse. G took a hard shot off the knee cap (duh) and limped off.  He finished that game, played another game or 2 when NYR got blown out the next 1 or 2 of the next games, then sat out for about 5-10 games. I wish he'd have just sat the season out, but NYR kept getting killed when he sat down, so I think he must have thought that he needed to come back to help the team save the season. I love G's grit and determination, and am rooting for him to return to his warrior/ shut down form. G, always looks like he's ready to smash into someone, which I love, and no one delivers the hits like he does. I love seeing an opposing, unsuspecting forward carrying the puck through the neutral zone, and then out of nowhere comes G and just flattens the guy. Whenever G does something like this early in the game, it's like the NYR have it, and the other team is gonna be tip toeing through the neutral zone all night, in no rush to try to accomplish anything.

So yea, Slats hamstrung the team a bit to hold the Old Guard together and make one last run or two, and that Cally deal was horrible. But, had we have won the Cup in 2014 (which we were awfully close to doing, as all 4 losses to the LAK could have been wins), then MSL would have been a huge part of it, and no one would be calling out that move as horrible. Still though, I do not think like that as a fan. I'm happy to make a run at it with a seemingly good enough team, picks and cap space intact just in case the team does not win it; rather than mortgaging the future. I am not an NHL GM with any rings tho, so what do I know? Gorton though- that guy is the right guy for the salvage job, undoubtedly, as he is taking what I thought to be a hamstrung team pretty much right back to where we were in 2012-2013 (2nd round exit, which is better than last year). Gorton may not win GM of the Year, but he is undoubtedly Rookie GM of the Offseason.

[psulion22 402]

7 hours ago, DarkStar50 said:

If Hagelin is the second coming of Guy Carbonneau, why did Anaheim trade him?

Because they expected him to do more than those two things.  I think they thought that he could create more offense in the west since it's more wide open, and just had unreasonable expectations.  He also makes too much money for what is role should be.  He's a third line puck retrieval and PK specialist.  That's it.

Pittsburgh is the perfect role for him.  He can use his speed to retrieve the puck, and then only has to give it to someone else.  They don't need him to make a play off the boards himself like the Rangers and Ducks did.  He is playing with Kessel, who is a shooter that uses the small opportunities that Hagelin creates to generate scoring chances.  And Bonino uses his size to help with end zone possession and cycle, which also means Hagelin has to do less.  But he still makes too much, and I'd be surprised if the Pens signed him past this deal at that kind of a number.  He may take less to stay in that situation.  but they can't be paying their 3rd line upwards of $12M, especially as guys like Sheary, Murray, Rust, Kuhnhackl, and Dumoulin, will need to get paid.

[DarkStar50 679]

The vibe I'm getting from your posts is 95% of the players are overpaid according to production, VAR, and various analytics. Somewhere off the ice, hockey is a business with players that demand a salary based on what a team is willing to pay and the agent can negotiate. Since the game is a business  and the business is a game not every team will receive complete value for their players' contracts in production and that is the risk the teams must take under the salary cap.

Will you be conducting the fantasy draft for MSH?

[psulion22 402]

4 hours ago, Cosmic said:

Disclaimer: I am a NYR fan. 

I do not recall where in this thread I read it, but someone said, "NYR can afford Staal, but not Yandle?" NYR signed Staal in January 2015, and then picked up Yandle at the trade deadline of 2015. I doubt that when Staal was signed, that Slats knew he'd be getting Yandle. Sure, you could say, "It doesn't matter- keep that cap money freed up and just figure someone will come along to use it on," and I'd agree. But, Staal was definitely NOT decided on, over Yandle. Regardless, I agree that it was an unfortunate signing.

Also, it is not just Staal's eye that has potentially been an issue. His brother Eric (a NYR for a few weeks) gave him a massive concussion, not sure if it was before or after the eye deal. If the brother Eric concussion was after the eye deal, who knows what the heck Marc is seeing and reading and how and if he is processing the game at speed. Judging from his play last year, I do not think he is processing the game at all. No real hope for improvement this year. He always seems to look lost too, not just when he is giving up goals from his side of the ice, but just in general.

I recall the play that Girardi cracked his kneecap on. It was against EDM in the first game that EDM blew out NYR, about 2/5 of the way into the season, after NYR had their hot start, and was starting to plateau a bit, right before the collapse. G took a hard shot off the knee cap (duh) and limped off.  He finished that game, played another game or 2 when NYR got blown out the next 1 or 2 of the next games, then sat out for about 5-10 games. I wish he'd have just sat the season out, but NYR kept getting killed when he sat down, so I think he must have thought that he needed to come back to help the team save the season. I love G's grit and determination, and am rooting for him to return to his warrior/ shut down form. G, always looks like he's ready to smash into someone, which I love, and no one delivers the hits like he does. I love seeing an opposing, unsuspecting forward carrying the puck through the neutral zone, and then out of nowhere comes G and just flattens the guy. Whenever G does something like this early in the game, it's like the NYR have it, and the other team is gonna be tip toeing through the neutral zone all night, in no rush to try to accomplish anything.

So yea, Slats hamstrung the team a bit to hold the Old Guard together and make one last run or two, and that Cally deal was horrible. But, had we have won the Cup in 2014 (which we were awfully close to doing, as all 4 losses to the LAK could have been wins), then MSL would have been a huge part of it, and no one would be calling out that move as horrible. Still though, I do not think like that as a fan. I'm happy to make a run at it with a seemingly good enough team, picks and cap space intact just in case the team does not win it; rather than mortgaging the future. I am not an NHL GM with any rings tho, so what do I know? Gorton though- that guy is the right guy for the salvage job, undoubtedly, as he is taking what I thought to be a hamstrung team pretty much right back to where we were in 2012-2013 (2nd round exit, which is better than last year). Gorton may not win GM of the Year, but he is undoubtedly Rookie GM of the Offseason.

I'd agree that they couldn't afford to pay both guys.  At the time they extended Staal, they had to at least have an idea that they'd want to upgrade their offensive production from the blue line.  The problem was knowing what Yandle's contract situation was during the 2015 offseason prior to July 1st.  At that point they had to look at the left side of their defense and realize they were going to have too much money tied up after the 15/16 season when Yandle needed to be extended, and Skjei would be ready.  Staal was badly exposed in the Tampa series.  Cooper's strategy was to have the forwards dump the puck to Staal's side because he couldn't get it out and Lundqvist is a poor puck handler so he couldn't help switch the sides.  I don't know if it's the eye injury, or the change in defensive systems and responsibilities, but Staal struggles to make quick, effective passes under pressure in this sytem.  When the puck is sent to his side, he will get there and then have to spin and try to shield the puck from the forechecker rather than making a quick pass.  It hapens nearly every time.  After that series, they needed to look at advanced metrics and possession numbers and realize that Staal was ineffective and move him at the draft before his NMC kicked in.  But they (meaning Sather) don't use advanced metrics, rather they go with the eye test, and evaluated him on what he looked like in the past rather than what his real impact numbers actually were.  I believe they would have better off moving Staal at that draft for anything they could get, extending Yandle and giving him a bigger role, and finding a cheap 3rd pair LD or even keeping Hunwick or going with Skjei.  Maybe they thought they would make another run and then move Staal this offseason.  Unfortunately, like you say, Staal's game is virtually nonexistant now and he has no trade value. 

Girardi did play with a cracked knee cap.  I do expect him to be better this season.  However, he will never live up to that contract.  His numbers are awful, and were awful before the injury.  His overachieving and style of play will only make his production decline faster.  Too much wear on his body.  I really do love the guy, and what he brings.  I hate the fact that he has the 26th highest cap hit of all defensemen in the league.  Being a "warrior" isn't enough to warrant that contract.  His numbers certainly aren't.

 

The trade to get MSL was fine.  I don't even care about his dropped production the second year.  He was still second or third on the team in goals.  My problem was the additional picks that we sent to Tampa for him.  They were absolutely unnecessary when Cally signed.  They did get close, I don't think as close as you do, but still had a chance.  And the death of Marty's mom was certainly a big catalyst for that (as was Price's injury).  But we are in a place now where they didn't win, no longer have any of the guys they sent all of the picks for, and are seriously on the brink of becoming a lottery team if Henrik has even a little drop off as he gets older.  Now Gorton may be able to right the ship.  If he does, he deserves GM of the decade.  Maybe a change in coach to a more defensive style will help fix things.

[psulion22 402]

1 hour ago, DarkStar50 said:

The vibe I'm getting from your posts is 95% of the players are overpaid according to production, VAR, and various analytics. Somewhere off the ice, hockey is a business with players that demand a salary based on what a team is willing to pay and the agent can negotiate. Since the game is a business  and the business is a game not every team will receive complete value for their players' contracts in production and that is the risk the teams must take under the salary cap.

Will you be conducting the fantasy draft for MSH?

On the Rangers?  Yeah, that's about right. 

I understand that the nature of hockey is such that you will not always get optimal value for every player.  My problem with the Rangers management is that they aren't just getting poor value, they don't even know what good value is.  I read an article, maybe in 2014 after the Hawks won again, about the adoption of advanced analytics and VAR across the league.  That article ranked the Rangers at, or near, the bottom in the NHL.  It's one thing to have players not live up to contracts.  That happens all the time.  The difference, the way I see it, is that the Rangers are giving contracts to guys for the wrong things.  In the past, before advanced metrics and the salary cap, this was a tricky art.  But with the availability of these numbers, and the knowledge of how they relate to production and success, the willful ignorance of it is purely inexcusable.  I agree hockey is a business based on decisions and risks.  The problem with the Rangers is that their front office is making those decisions blind, not using all of the tools available to them.

Maybe i should.  Can we make corsi/fenwick and VAR scoring stats? 

 

EDIT:  found the article.  Made by ESPN in Feb 2015 as a piece on advanced analytics in all sports.  It has the Rangers in the bottom 4 in the league, listed as "skeptics" with the Ducks and Sens.  Only the Avs rank worse as "nonbelievers".  What's interesting is that if you look at their analysis for the Rangers and Ducks, they are spot on.  The struggles that both teams have can be addressed by looking at advanced stats, but neither teams do and continue to be weak in those areas.  And at the time, both were headed by "old school guys" who were successful before the cap era, but have had only glimpses of that success now.

http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12331388/the-great-analytics-rankings

"The Rangers are very much aware of the analytics available and are keeping up with trends, but there's a healthy skepticism internally as to whether there's a real correlation between current analytics and winning hockey games.

That approach is reflected in their personnel choices. This past offseason, they let analytics darling Benoit Pouliot walk in free agency, while they elected to extend the contract of defenseman Dan Girardi rather than possession-producer Anton Stralman.

During his final season in New York, Stralman had a Corsi for percentage of 56.4 percent compared to Girardi's 50.1 percent that same season."

[psulion22 402]

And a note on Yandle - 

He had the worst +/- on the team at -4.  But he was near the top of every advanced statistical category on the Rangers, both offensively and defensively.  Girardi and Staal were consistently near the bottom.  Yandle's -4 has to be some strange statistical anomaly because he was on the ice for more goals for per 60 min and less goals against per 60 minutes than any other defenseman (except McD on GF/60).  His teammates' numbers are worse without him in all categories.  He was on the ice for 26 less total goals against than McD, despite playing 5 more total minutes.  I don't know why he shows as a -4.  But he was statistically the Rangers best defenseman in all areas by every other metric but that, and that includes goals scored while he was on the ice.

He may not be as good as I said he was.  But his numbers show he is much better than many other think he is.

[Cosmic 178]

On 8/25/2016 at 3:53 AM, psulion22 said:

And a note on Yandle - 

He had the worst +/- on the team at -4.  But he was near the top of every advanced statistical category on the Rangers, both offensively and defensively.  Girardi and Staal were consistently near the bottom.  Yandle's -4 has to be some strange statistical anomaly because he was on the ice for more goals for per 60 min and less goals against per 60 minutes than any other defenseman (except McD on GF/60).  His teammates' numbers are worse without him in all categories.  He was on the ice for 26 less total goals against than McD, despite playing 5 more total minutes.  I don't know why he shows as a -4.  But he was statistically the Rangers best defenseman in all areas by every other metric but that, and that includes goals scored while he was on the ice.

He may not be as good as I said he was.  But his numbers show he is much better than many other think he is.

(In my memory of watching every NYR game; this is not an advanced stat but easy enough to research):

Yandle is a PP specialist/ PP quarterback, and was something like 3rd in the league in primary assists or primary assists on the PP (or both maybe). In 5v5, he must have been -4. However, he was the guy that set up about 95% of the NYR PP goals, or was at least on ice for about 95% of PP goals. He did not play on the PK. Thus, the stats you are seeing. 

[psulion22 402]

9 hours ago, Cosmic said:

(In my memory of watching every NYR game; this is not an advanced stat but easy enough to research):

Yandle is a PP specialist/ PP quarterback, and was something like 3rd in the league in primary assists or primary assists on the PP (or both maybe). In 5v5, he must have been -4. However, he was the guy that set up about 95% of the NYR PP goals, or was at least on ice for about 95% of PP goals. He did not play on the PK. Thus, the stats you are seeing. 

I thought of that too. He's a +11 5v5. Roughly half of his points came on the PP. All of those minuses had to have come in unusual situations - like 3v3 or 4v4. Unfortunately, I'm having a hard time finding those exact numbers.