What are the odds of making the show

[Netminder32 32]

This is a little dated and takes some considerations into effect like...you are already registered and playing some level of minor hockey but 1 in 1000 odds seems pretty darn good. Lower than I would have imagined...

"In 1997/98 there were 484,000 kids between the ages of 4 and 20 playing Canadian minor hockey. Of that total, 29,000 were girls. The odds of making it to the NHL is one in 1,000. The number of arenas per capita in Canada is 1:9,487. ("The Proving Grounds: minor hockey has major pains." Maclean's, May 18, 1998, #52)"

[NuggyBuggy 0]

"In 1997/98 there were 484,000 kids between the ages of 4 and 20 playing Canadian minor hockey. Of that total, 29,000 were girls. The odds of making it to the NHL is one in 1,000. The number of arenas per capita in Canada is 1:9,487. ("The Proving Grounds: minor hockey has major pains." Maclean's, May 18, 1998, #52)"

1 in 1000 do seem like too-good odds. The problem with that statistic is it seems at first glance to ignore the Europeans and Americans playing hockey.

To answer the question of "what are the odds of making the NHL" it needs to be qualified to be meaningful. Are we talking about odds for:

- a newborn in Canada ? or a newborn anywhere in the world ?

- a newborn born to middle-class or higher Canadians ?

- a kid just starting novice hockey ? a teenager playing house league/ A/AA/AA ?

- a kid playing midget AAA in Southern Ontario ? or in Alabama ?

- a kid playing major Junior ? a kid playing NCAA ? Or NCAA D1 ?

- a kid named Evgeni Malkin ?

- a 35-year old beer leaguer ?

[hockeymom 2]

I wanted to check number registered players - but the use of "current" on the web is careless.

Number of registered players by Countries

Canada has a total of 574,125 players (1,76% of its population)

The United States has a total of 485,017 registered players (0,16% of its population)

Russia has a total of 77,702 players (0,05% of its population)

The Czech Republic has 72,075 players (0,7% of its population)

Sweden has a total of 65,613 players (0,7% of its population)

Finland has a total of 52,597 registered players (1,0% of its population)

Germany has a total of 25,934 registered players (0,03% of its population).

Slovakia has a total of 12,375 players (0,23% of its population)

Denmark currently has 4,255 players (0,07 of its population)

Belarus has 2,850 players (0,02% of its population)

Latvia has 2,740 players (0,12% of its population)

Kazakhstan has 1,800 registered players (0,01% of its population)

Ukraine has a total of 1,728 players (0,003% of its population)

Slovenia has only 980 players (0,05% of its population)

Is this factoid still true?

Canadians currently outnumber Americans in the NHL by a ratio of almost three to one, and about thirty percent of the league's players are non-North Americans.

[hockeymom 2]

Here is where I am going with this fun with numbers thing....

It doesn't REALLY matter what the actual odds are - ultimately you need to be The One to achieve your goal.

And if you look at the level of passion and dedication and, as my daughter would put it, the sheer number of miles of sweaty unders between now and making your goal.... becoming good enough is daunting.

The numbers of non North Americans who make the NHL, coming from a much smaller pool of players, suggests they are doing some effective stuff in player development.

[pat19 0]

Goon. he didn't start playing hockey until he was 19 and he made it to the AHL. even though he was goon and all he did was fight that's still pretty amazing.

[NuggyBuggy 0]

The numbers of non North Americans who make the NHL, coming from a much smaller pool of players, suggests they are doing some effective stuff in player development.

There is a paper authored by USA Hockey which analyzed ice time in games and found that during games even the best players handle the puck a very small fraction of time they are on the ice. They concluded that games are an inefficient way to develop skills and point out that Canadian/US teams spend much less of their ice time practicing relative to European teams. They recommend that coaches emphasize practice more and scrimmage/games less.

I couldn't find the original article either on my computer or the Net, but this synopsizes the original article well enough: http://www.canadianwatchdog.com/article030616.html.

[tsanga 0]

From the article:

"We don't practice enough, and we place too much emphasis on winning."

Funny, when I read that they need to play fewer games the first thing that popped into my mind was: "Then how're they supposed to learn how to win?"

It used to be come playoff time in the NHL the Euros would just fade away.

[Drury23 0]

Not to be an idiot, but what professional league has the greatest chance of getting into? The NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL or other?

[tsanga 0]

Not to be an idiot, but what professional league has the greatest chance of getting into? The NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL or other?

It's got to be the NFL. 32 teams, 53 man rosters plus 8-man practice squads. Not to mention the guys who're just tackling dummies for practices.

[NuggyBuggy 0]

Not to be an idiot, but what professional league has the greatest chance of getting into?  The NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL or other?

I hope you're asking because of simple curiousity or to settle an argument, and that you're NOT asking because you're trying to decide what sport to pursue.

You should play whatever sports you ENJOY playing. Because discussion of odds aside and without any desire of snuffing out any dreams, the chances that you or any particular person reading this thread subsequently making it to any one of those leagues is close enough to zero that it might as well be. So enjoy the sports you love for what they are.

[Justin K. 0]

To answer the question of "what are the odds of making the NHL" it needs to be qualified to be meaningful. Are we talking about odds for:

.

.

.

- a 35-year old beer leaguer ?

I tried to calculate that but my calculator said "overflow error" ;)

[Gongshow11 1]

for hockey, 5% of guys play hockey after the age of 21 (college/university), 3% of people playing University, or juniors make the show

[Chadd 916]

Those numbers still seem high.

[Quintin 16]

I dunno about the NHL but in the EIHL in the UK, there's a player called Jeremy Cornish who can't skate backwards but yet still playing pro level. Then again, he's a goon so maybe that's why.

On the subject of not-being-able-to-skate-backwards, doesn't Dave Andreychuk not know how to skate backwards?

[artvandelay 0]

A lot of the replies seem to represent high numbers. From my draft year (which I obvioussly wasn't drafted even to the OHL) - 1 person got drafted from the entire MTHL (now GTHL) - who is in the NHL.

So firstly - if you are not playing at the highest level for your age right now - and excelling above others then you have no shot (if you're a middle tier player on your AAA team in the GTHL, you better have other plans unless you're 9 years old).

I think most guys that have a shot are skating this summer recreationally with other high-level guys (guys who play pro in Europe, US College returns, etc.) - and if they have a shot at the NHL they will look extremely good in that level of company - if you're not even at that skate - you are probably not in...

This really is almost a ...if you have to ask.... question....

[pantherfan 0]

...there's a player called Jeremy Cornish who can't skate backwards but yet still playing pro level. Then again, he's a goon so maybe that's why.

Damn right! :P

[Kovy_Ribs_Fedo 3]

So... your sayin theres a chance. ;)

First of all, it's not a chance. Hard work is everything. I've talked to a pro and olympic trainer last week and he told me that - 1 person on 10 have the physical attributes to be a world class athlete, 1 person on 10 have the mental to be a world class athlete and 1 person on 100 have both.

By saying it's impossible, you are not in the 1 person on 10 that have the mental to succeed.

Don't get me wrong, they aren't that much af an edge between JR A and major junior and then between junior major and the AHL and then the AHL to the NHL.

Mental strenght is one of the key to go reach that small edge between each caliber. Unfortunately, most people are too weak mentally to succed, most people are affraid, most people don't think they can. 10 years ago, my brother would have never thought he could play junior major but now he is. Why? Because he believes in himself and when you believes in yourself. What happen? You work hard to reach your goals because you know you can.

I'd say go for it, and if doesn't work who cares, being an athlete might be one of the greatest thrill ever, surely better than a drug thrill ;)

[xMenace 0]

I don't know the overall odds, but for midget AAA to major junior they are not good. I've been watching tryouts all week for the Saint John Sea Dogs of the QMJHL. Of the 50 or so kids trying to make the team I see one potential top 3 NHL pick, another 1st rd pick, 1 2nd rd pick, 1 4th rd pick, and another already drafted 4th rd to Buffalo. The rest don't have much of a hope. If they stay the full term they'll get Canadian University paid for.

[xMenace 0]

Why? Because he believes in himself and when you believes in yourself. What happen? You work hard to reach your goals because you know you can.

I'd say go for it, and if doesn't work who cares, being an athlete might be one of the greatest thrill ever, surely better than a drug thrill ;)

Question: are you born with the mental strength or can it be developed? Can your minor hockey coaches do much to help?

[hockeymom 2]

Why? Because he believes in himself and when you believes in yourself. What happen? You work hard to reach your goals because you know you can.

I'd say go for it, and if doesn't work who cares, being an athlete might be one of the greatest thrill ever, surely better than a drug thrill ;)

Question: are you born with the mental strength or can it be developed? Can your minor hockey coaches do much to help?

No one comes out of the womb with mental strength; it is developed. And it is developed over your lifetime as a result of how you face up to and work through the speed-bumps you face in life.

If no one was watching...

Would you work just as hard?

Would you skate full tilt from end-to-end - or glide those last few feet?

Any sane person looks at this and says the odds are so great it is virtually impossible.

So let's go with impossible....

If you knew you were going to fail, would you do it anyway? Is your passion to improve and love of the game large enough that you would devote a huge chunk of your life to the pursuit of the impossible?

If you failed, would you look back on the things you missed out on with regret? Or, did you so love what you were doing, that you have no regrets?

[NuggyBuggy 0]

1 person on 10 have the physical attributes to be a world class athlete, 1 person on 10 have the mental to be a world class athlete and 1 person on 100 have both.

I bet that the numbers just do not bear that out. Forget about regular guys and let's start with a very high level of competition. One in 100 NCAA D1 athletes, for instance, in ANY sport do not have what it takes to be a world class athlete, let alone one in 100 PEOPLE. How many D1 football players make it to the NFL ? D1 sprinters/swimmers/gymnasts compete in the Olympics ? D1 hockey players make it to the NHL ?

I just did a quick google and found that for football (which someone suggested is the numerically easiest sport to play at the highest level) there are 235 D1 programs (!) and 85 scholarships per team. Forgetting about non-scholarship players, that means there are close to 20,000 D1 football players each year. Assume that everyone only opts for the draft in their senior year, AND that everyone makes it to the senior year, that's about 5000 players eligible each year. In 2006 there were 32 NFL teams and I think 7 rounds of the draft. That's 224 players drafted, i.e. about 5% of all D1 players. But only a fraction of the drafted players end up making it to the NFL, and of these only a small fraction again end up becoming world-class football players (say, make it to the Pro Bowl).

The same google search turned up 57 D1 hockey programs with 18 scholarships per team. Again forgetting about non-scholarship players, that's 1026 players who could be drafted every year. Are 100 D1 players getting drafted each year by the NHL ? With 7 rounds * 30 (?) teams = 210 players total, not even close, and as we all know only some of the drafted players end up making their teams, let alone becoming world-class (say make it to the All Star Game or their Olympic Team). ( I had to look to D1 hockey because it's easier to find numbers).

In 2006 there were 24 WHL players drafted. That's a little more than one player PER TEAM, and again not all these players are going to make it to the NHL - again let alone become world-class.

I don't doubt that mental makeup is important to reaching the highest level. But trainers have a vested interest in overstating an athlete's chance of making it to the next level - would someone want to tell their client that they have next to no chance of making their dream ? If you have a dream, by all means, go for it. But people should be realistic about the odds they face.

[Kovy_Ribs_Fedo 3]

Why? Because he believes in himself and when you believes in yourself. What happen? You work hard to reach your goals because you know you can.

I'd say go for it, and if doesn't work who cares, being an athlete might be one of the greatest thrill ever, surely better than a drug thrill ;)

Question: are you born with the mental strength or can it be developed? Can your minor hockey coaches do much to help?

No one comes out of the womb with mental strength; it is developed. And it is developed over your lifetime as a result of how you face up to and work through the speed-bumps you face in life.

If no one was watching...

Would you work just as hard?

Would you skate full tilt from end-to-end - or glide those last few feet?

Any sane person looks at this and says the odds are so great it is virtually impossible.

So let's go with impossible....

If you knew you were going to fail, would you do it anyway? Is your passion to improve and love of the game large enough that you would devote a huge chunk of your life to the pursuit of the impossible?

If you failed, would you look back on the things you missed out on with regret? Or, did you so love what you were doing, that you have no regrets?

it's weird, but it's exactly what I mean by mental strenght. And like HockeyMom says mental strenght can be develop.

[Kovy_Ribs_Fedo 3]

1 person on 10 have the physical attributes to be a world class athlete, 1 person on 10 have the mental to be a world class athlete and 1 person on 100 have both.

I bet that the numbers just do not bear that out. Forget about regular guys and let's start with a very high level of competition. One in 100 NCAA D1 athletes, for instance, in ANY sport do not have what it takes to be a world class athlete, let alone one in 100 PEOPLE. How many D1 football players make it to the NFL ? D1 sprinters/swimmers/gymnasts compete in the Olympics ? D1 hockey players make it to the NHL ?

I just did a quick google and found that for football (which someone suggested is the numerically easiest sport to play at the highest level) there are 235 D1 programs (!) and 85 scholarships per team. Forgetting about non-scholarship players, that means there are close to 20,000 D1 football players each year. Assume that everyone only opts for the draft in their senior year, AND that everyone makes it to the senior year, that's about 5000 players eligible each year. In 2006 there were 32 NFL teams and I think 7 rounds of the draft. That's 224 players drafted, i.e. about 5% of all D1 players. But only a fraction of the drafted players end up making it to the NFL, and of these only a small fraction again end up becoming world-class football players (say, make it to the Pro Bowl).

The same google search turned up 57 D1 hockey programs with 18 scholarships per team. Again forgetting about non-scholarship players, that's 1026 players who could be drafted every year. Are 100 D1 players getting drafted each year by the NHL ? With 7 rounds * 30 (?) teams = 210 players total, not even close, and as we all know only some of the drafted players end up making their teams, let alone becoming world-class (say make it to the All Star Game or their Olympic Team). ( I had to look to D1 hockey because it's easier to find numbers).

In 2006 there were 24 WHL players drafted. That's a little more than one player PER TEAM, and again not all these players are going to make it to the NHL - again let alone become world-class.

I don't doubt that mental makeup is important to reaching the highest level. But trainers have a vested interest in overstating an athlete's chance of making it to the next level - would someone want to tell their client that they have next to no chance of making their dream ? If you have a dream, by all means, go for it. But people should be realistic about the odds they face.

If you knew you were going to fail, would you do it anyway? Is your passion to improve and love of the game large enough that you would devote a huge chunk of your life to the pursuit of the impossible?

If you failed, would you look back on the things you missed out on with regret? Or, did you so love what you were doing, that you have no regrets?

Here is what HockeyMom post previously.

A winner beats the odds, a loser uses them as excuses.

[NuggyBuggy 0]

A winner beats the odds, a loser uses them as excuses.

That's fine, a good attitude is obviously going to be important to get to the highest level, but don't claim that 1 in 100 people have what it takes to be a world-class athlete. That's just silly, and what I was trying to show.

If you really believe what you wrote, let's talk in 5 or 10 years when you and your brother have or have not made it to the NHL. Will you both beat the odds and be winners by your own definition, or will you be losers ? PM me your brother's name and if he is a winner and he makes it up for a cup of coffee, I will buy the both of you a pitcher of beer if you are ever in Toronto.

[Patrick67 1]

"Somebody has to be better than the rest, might aswell be me".

NuggyBuggy: Intresting numbers, especially liked the Football stats regarding D1. So (it seems) there's a 5% chance to go from D1 to the show. How about from High School to D1 College, what might the odds be there?