Study on probability of playing sports in college or The Big Show

[Jason Harris 31]

I came across this Study.

Men's Basketball

Less than one in 35, or approximately 3.0 percent, of high school senior boys playing interscholastic basketball will go on to play men's basketball at a NCAA member institution.

Less than one in 75, or approximately 1.2 percent, of NCAA male senior basketball players will get drafted by a National Basketball Association (NBA) team.

Approximately three in 10,000, or approximately 0.03 percent of high school senior boys playing interscholastic basketball will eventually be drafted by an NBA team.

Women's Basketball

About 3.3 percent, or approximately three in 100, of high school senior girls interscholastic basketball players will go on to play women's basketball at a NCAA member institution.

About one in 100, or approximately 1.0 percent, of NCAA female senior basketball players will get drafted by a Women's National Basketball Association (WNBA) team.

Approximately one in 5,000, or approximately 0.02 percent of high school senior girls playing interscholastic basketball will eventually be drafted by a WNBA team.

Football

About 5.7 percent, or approximately one in 17, of all high school senior boys playing interscholastic football will go on to play football at a NCAA member institution.

About 1.8 percent, or approximately one in 50, of NCAA senior football players will get drafted by a National Football League (NFL) team.

Approximately eight in 10,000, or approximately 0.08 percent of high school senior boys playing interscholastic football will eventually be drafted by an NFL team.

Baseball

Approximately three in 50, or about 6.1 percent, of high school senior boys interscholastic baseball players will go on to play men's baseball at a NCAA member institution.

Less than ten in 100, or about 9.4 percent, of NCAA senior male baseball players will get drafted by a Major League Baseball (MLB) team.

Approximately one in 200, or approximately 0.45 percent of high school senior boys playing interscholastic baseball will eventually be drafted by an MLB team.

Men's Ice Hockey

Approximately 11 in 100, or about 11 percent, of high school senior boys interscholastic ice hockey players will go on to play men's ice hockey at a NCAA member institution.

Less than 1 in 27, or about 3.7 percent, of NCAA senior male ice hockey players will get drafted by a National Hockey League (NHL) team.

Less than one in 300, or approximately 0.32 percent of high school senior boys playing interscholastic ice hockey will eventually be drafted by an NHL team.

Men's Soccer

Less than three in 50, or about 5.5 percent, of high school senior boys interscholastic soccer players will go on to play men's soccer at a NCAA member institution.

Less than one in 50, or about 1.7 percent, of NCAA senior male soccer players will be drafted by a Major League Soccer (MLS) team.

Approximately one in 1,250, or approximately 0.07 percent of high school senior boys playing interscholastic soccer will eventually be drafted by an MLS team.

[Jason Harris 31]

Here's my take:

The whole thing has gotten out of whack!

Coaches are pressuring parents and kids to pick a sport to have the best chance of "making it," but from other articles I've read, nothing has changed in terms of percentages the past 20-30 years. If anything, the numbers making it to the North American pro sports has decreased because the pool has been opened to more international players. Three-sport athletes are a dying breed, which is such a shame, because if the odds of making it further are so small, the kids should be allowed the fun of playing other games.

I've also read previously that half of all youth athletes have dropped out by age 13, so for parents to put their kids on a career track by age 8 is ridiculous. And I've seen it happen. I coach my girls in recreation baseball. Starting last year, we had to drive 30-40 minutes away to play other rec 9-year-old teams, because it's been implied at organizational meetings that the parents of Little Johnny don't want Little Bobby impeding his opportunity. So instead of being able to play in one town and have a mixture of different talent levels, where the new kids get put in less treacherous positions and bat toward the bottom of the order yet might be on a winning team, we have two-inning games that last 1:45 and have scores of 28-13, because the real newbies to the sport can't pitch, field, bat or throw. I had one game two weeks ago, where we lost 41-1 in two innings (against a team that moved down to the rec level and had won their first five games by 117-5) and one of the kids asked me, "Hey, coach, is it okay if I sit this inning out?"

Our competitive soccer program has told us the kids must play soccer exclusively for 10 months a year -- at age 10! My point is this exclusivity and stratification of sports has robbed our children of the fun of playing different games, and, in the worst cases, is blowing the less talented kids out of the sports almost immediately.

[Fire0nIce228 1]

So your saying theres a chance!!

-Dumb and Dumber

Serious note, good to see those kinda numbers. Study hard in school boys, theres the facts on 'making it.'

[english15x 3]

So your saying theres a chance!!

-Dumb and Dumber

Serious note, good to see those kinda numbers. Study hard in school boys, theres the facts on 'making it.'

hahahah ... what a quote (1 in a million)

yeah, those numbers are interesting though.

[Jason Harris 31]

So your saying theres a chance!!

-Dumb and Dumber

Great line, FireOnIce!

A couple of other thoughts. I ran across another study a while ago that stated that almost half of college athletes are non-scholarship. As a participant, that's great because they get to continue having fun playing a game and possibly still chase their dreams. As a parent, that should be sobering if they think Little Johnny is going to earn his way to college, since the percentages need to be halved from above.

I also think the hockey number is misleading, since the author computed her percentages based on the estimated number of high school seniors playing interscholastically. Hockey is a unique sport, though, in that many high schools don't offer varsity hockey, so kids are playing on travel teams. However, if those players were added to the pool of high schools seniors, I suspect the percentage of seniors going on to play collegiate would be significantly less than 11%. On the other hand, another unique aspect of hockey are kids who play juniors, then enter college at 20; I'm not sure how they would skew the numbers.

[JR Boucicaut 3803]

I also think the hockey number is misleading, since the author computed her percentages based on the estimated number of high school seniors playing interscholastically. Hockey is a unique sport, though, in that many high schools don't offer varsity hockey, so kids are playing on travel teams. However, if those players were added to the pool of high schools seniors, I suspect the percentage of seniors going on to play collegiate would be significantly less than 11%. On the other hand, another unique aspect of hockey are kids who play juniors, then enter college at 20; I'm not sure how they would skew the numbers.

Exactly right. With the different ways to get to the pro level, the number is much lower.

IMO the numbers really make sense for football and basketball - in baseball most prospects are signed and sent to farm teams than play NCAA. In those two sports, NCAA is the preferred route.

[frankie56 0]

I think those numbers relate to the size of the minor league programs for each sport. Almost none for basketball and football, and relatively large for baseball and hockey.

[Jason Harris 31]

That's the hard part, trying to factor in baseball's minor leagues and hockey's junior leagues. Consider baseball, for example. What does each organization generally have, maybe a rookie league team, three A leagues teams, one AA team and one AAA team? At 25 players per team times 30 organizations, that is around 4,500 players, which is less than 1/6 of the number of college players. However, a portion of baseball minor leaguers came from college, so we'd have to research how many went straight to the minor leagues rather than to college.

As one who has been coaching kids in three sports for the past five years, what I consider the bottom line is the percentage of kids who "make it" is incredibly low (particularly since half will drop out by age 13), yet I've come across parents and organizations effectively pressuring kids into career tracks. It adds stress on the children and a strain on the parents, since they no longer can play across town -- they have to drive thirty minutes to get "worthy" competition -- so I'd love to see the pendulum swing back.

[Chadd 916]

Good bit on the Canadian perspective here

http://www.cumberlandminorhockey.ca/to_the_nhl/chances.htm

Here are the numbers from the study:

In the 1991 and 1992 OHL Drafts, there were 232 Ontario developed players selected by the 16 junior teams. The following breakdown shows how those 30,000 players active that year "progressed".

• Out of those 232 players drafted to the OHL, only 105 ever played one game in the OHL.
  
• Out of those 105 players, only 90 finished their full 3 or 4 years of eligibility in the OHL.
  
• Of those 30,000 players, only 42 played NCAA Division I hockey! Remember too that U.S. scholarships are not the large educational packages that have been offered by NCAA schools in the past (see more information below). The following "1975" players had either full or partial NCAA scholarships.
  
• There were 56 players from the "1975" age group that were either drafted or signed by a National Hockey League team (by far the most of any birth year Ontario has experienced!). Fourty-eight (48) of those 56 players were drafted by NHL teams!
  
• Of the 48 drafted players only 39 signed contracts with NHL teams. Eight players signed as free agents after going un-drafted as NCAA or major junior players.
  
• Of the 48 signed players, only 32 have seen action to date in an NHL game.
  
• Of the 32 players with NHL experience, only 15 have played more than one (1) full NHL season!
  
• Of these 32 players, only 21 were active in the NHL as of April 1, 2002 .
  
• Of those 32 who have played an NHL game to date, only 18-20 will earn a second contract with an NHL team. About half of those players earning second contracts will see them finish that second contract with an NHL team. The remainder of the 56 players will toil in the minor pros in the IHL, AHL, ECHL or Europe .
  
• Of the 32 players who have seen action in an NHL game, only six (6) have qualified for the NHL's Player Pension (minimum 400 games in the NHL!).
  

[QandA 0]

Rule of thumb I've been told is that you take on junior guy per junior team and they make the show.

[DarkStar50 679]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/11/magazine...ml?ref=magazine

This article is also interesting because not only does it show how difficult it is to earn the scholarship, it shows how injuries factor into the young athlete's career. This is girls soccer where torn ACL's are commonplace!! The article is long but worth it if you want to see another part of the problem.

[ktang 34]

It would be interesting to find out the parents' motivations for putting their children into organized sports, grouped into categories such as:

a. Having fun;

b. Learning teamwork;

c. Health;

d. Learning to win;

e. Learning to lose;

f. Learning to overcome adversity;

g. Keeping the children out of trouble;

h. The children like the sport;

i. Getting a scholarship;

j. Going pro;

k. Bragging for the parents' peers; and

l. Parents' belonging to and socializing with similarly competitive parents.

I've searched on-and-off, unsuccessfully. But, it might not be possible to get the whole truth, because what the parents may answer may not be what they believe, and what they believe may not be their true motivation (hidden only to themselves).

[mrusse01 0]

I don't think there are a lot of parents out there who are actually thinking to themselves, 'I'm going to push my kid to be a pro athlete, or at least get a free ride because I don't want to pay for school'.

I'd think (hope) that the vast vast majority of parents get their kids involved in sport because the kid wants to play, or the parent thinks it will be fun/character building/teamwork/etc. Some people might miss the point a bit and obviously push the kids too hard, but really I think that's more of a function of them wanting to see their kids succeed and enjoy themselves, rather than thinking about getting them to go pro/NCAA.

I for one always wished my parents pushed me harder in hockey, but I realize now that having a kid in AA/AAA hockey for several years must be an enourmous burden for the parents with driving, equipment, ice time, and all the rest.

[RadioGaGa 162]

All of that just makes the Sutter's (6 of 7) and Staal's (3 of 4...so far) more impressive. And, the 7th Sutter would have made it if not for injuries.

[lampliter87 8]

IMO the numbers really make sense for football and basketball - in baseball most prospects are signed and sent to farm teams than play NCAA. In those two sports, NCAA is the preferred route.

Football players are required to play at least two years of college before they are draft eligible, right?

[DCott 0]

IMO the numbers really make sense for football and basketball - in baseball most prospects are signed and sent to farm teams than play NCAA. In those two sports, NCAA is the preferred route.

Football players are required to play at least two years of college before they are draft eligible, right?

or reach a certain age

[Chadd 916]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/11/magazine...ml?ref=magazine

This article is also interesting because not only does it show how difficult it is to earn the scholarship, it shows how injuries factor into the young athlete's career. This is girls soccer where torn ACL's are commonplace!! The article is long but worth it if you want to see another part of the problem.

A former teammate of mine has a daughter at BC but she's recovering from her second knee surgery.

I don't think there are a lot of parents out there who are actually thinking to themselves, 'I'm going to push my kid to be a pro athlete, or at least get a free ride because I don't want to pay for school'.

I'd think (hope) that the vast vast majority of parents get their kids involved in sport because the kid wants to play, or the parent thinks it will be fun/character building/teamwork/etc. Some people might miss the point a bit and obviously push the kids too hard, but really I think that's more of a function of them wanting to see their kids succeed and enjoy themselves, rather than thinking about getting them to go pro/NCAA.

I for one always wished my parents pushed me harder in hockey, but I realize now that having a kid in AA/AAA hockey for several years must be an enourmous burden for the parents with driving, equipment, ice time, and all the rest.

Whatever the reason for starting, way too many parents think their kid is going to be the one who gets the free ride or makes the NHL.

IMO the numbers really make sense for football and basketball - in baseball most prospects are signed and sent to farm teams than play NCAA. In those two sports, NCAA is the preferred route.

Football players are required to play at least two years of college before they are draft eligible, right?

or reach a certain age

Age only, college experience is not required to be drafted into the NFL.

[Jason Harris 31]

I don't think there are a lot of parents out there who are actually thinking to themselves, 'I'm going to push my kid to be a pro athlete, or at least get a free ride because I don't want to pay for school'.

I'd think (hope) that the vast vast majority of parents get their kids involved in sport because the kid wants to play, or the parent thinks it will be fun/character building/teamwork/etc. Some people might miss the point a bit and obviously push the kids too hard, but really I think that's more of a function of them wanting to see their kids succeed and enjoy themselves, rather than thinking about getting them to go pro/NCAA.

I for one always wished my parents pushed me harder in hockey, but I realize now that having a kid in AA/AAA hockey for several years must be an enourmous burden for the parents with driving, equipment, ice time, and all the rest.

Whatever the reason for starting, way too many parents think their kid is going to be the one who gets the free ride or makes the NHL.

I was going to say the same thing, Chadd. Once their child starts to show better skills than the other kids, it seems a lot of parents tell themselves, "Wow, maybe Johnny has a chance...." However, what the study shows is it's not enough for Johnny to be better than the other kids in the town league; he basically has to be the best kid in the county to have a shot at going further than high school.

To be sure, not all parents of talented kids lose perspective; and the blame shouldn't lie fully on the parents anyway. Coaches and organizations have to take some of the heat for pressuring the stars into picking one sport only.

By the way, we wanted our daughters to play sports because we had read numerous articles that stated that girls who play team sports become better socially adjusted: lower smoking rates, lower drinking rates, lower teen pregnancy, etc. Some of the sports they didn't like as much initially, but I think now they just like them as games to play as well as friends to make. The sad part, however, is it's so difficult to disassociate yourself from your own children's performance. While I am generally the most upbeat, encouraging coach around, there's no doubt I find myself harder on my own children, mainly when they don't give good effort. I don't know how many times I've told them, "I don't care if you're the slowest player out there or the worst player. That doesn't matter to me. What I do care about is if you don't give good effort. That part you can control. Besides I guarantee the game is a lot more fun when you hustle, because you make plays you wouldn't normally make."

What happens, however, is some parents start to criticize their children for their performance, rather than just their effort.

[Gwyren 0]

IMO the numbers really make sense for football and basketball - in baseball most prospects are signed and sent to farm teams than play NCAA. In those two sports, NCAA is the preferred route.

Football players are required to play at least two years of college before they are draft eligible, right?

I do not believe it is age based. I believe a player is required to be out of high school for three years before they can be drafted into the NFL.

[mrusse01 0]

IMO the numbers really make sense for football and basketball - in baseball most prospects are signed and sent to farm teams than play NCAA. In those two sports, NCAA is the preferred route.

Football players are required to play at least two years of college before they are draft eligible, right?

It's high school graduation plus three college football seasons...you don't necessarily have to play college.

[JR Boucicaut 3803]

To be eligible for the NFL Draft it is 3 years after high school. Doesn't has to be NCAA.